⚡New Year, New Commerce Reality. Agentic Shopping and Surcharge Shocks.

Hello there,

Happy New Year! Welcome back to Buy&Beyond, your essential guide for DTC and e-commerce leaders navigating a fundamentally different commerce landscape in 2026.

If you survived peak season and you're now dealing with carrier rate shocks and wondering what AI shopping agents mean for your business, this edition's for you.

This week, two seismic shifts are defining the start of 2026:

Agentic commerce is here. Google just launched the Universal Commerce Protocol with Shopify, Walmart, Target, and 20+ partners, AI agents can now buy products without users ever leaving search or chat.

Carrier costs keep climbing. UPS and FedEx hit you with 5.9% rate increases for the third straight year, but the real damage is in surcharges up 30% and new cubic volume triggers hitting more shipments.

🚀 Let's break it down.

This edition of Buy&Beyond is brought to you by LateShipment.com

🤖 What's Shaping Commerce in 2026

Google's Universal Commerce Protocol and the agentic shopping revolution.

Welcome to 2026, the year commerce fundamentally changed. On January 11, Google announced the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) at the National Retail Federation conference, co-developed with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target, and Walmart, and endorsed by 20+ partners including Stripe, Mastercard, Visa, American Express, and The Home Depot.

What UCP actually is: An open-source standard that creates a common language for AI agents and systems to work together across the entire shopping journey—from discovery and buying to post-purchase support. According to Google, instead of requiring unique connections for every agent, UCP enables all agents to interact seamlessly.

Why this matters to you: By 2030, AI-powered tools and agentic commerce could represent a $3-5 trillion opportunity globally. Starting soon, shoppers will see a buy button directly in Google Search AI Mode and Gemini app. According to Google CEO Sundar Pichai, "If you're searching for a suitcase, the protocol will allow the merchant to personalize a 'new member' price or offer loyalty enrollment instantly, and with a few taps via Google Pay, the purchase is complete without ever leaving the conversation."

The merchant impact: Retailers remain the merchant of record and own the customer relationship, but Google now sits between discovery and checkout. As PYMNTS analysis notes, "By embedding UCP directly into Search and Gemini, Google shortens the distance between intent and payment. The user no longer needs to leave Google's interface to complete a purchase. That changes who controls the customer journey."

What you need to do:

1/ Get your products UCP-ready If you sell through Shopify, BigCommerce, or other UCP-compatible platforms, ensure your Merchant Center account is active and product data is optimized for conversational discovery. According to industry analysis, agents generate more specific, higher-intent queries, merchants must be strategic about how they show up in answer engines.

2/ Rethink your post-purchase as part of checkout UCP's roadmap includes post-order workflows, loyalty programs, and personalized cross-sell options. Your tracking experience, returns process, and customer communications are now part of the AI shopping experience. Make it seamless and intelligent with AI-powered post-purchase solutions.

3/ Understand the competitive shift As one retail analyst notes, "Protocols do not just enable transactions. They define defaults, determine what data gets surfaced to agents and shape how buying decisions get made." The brands that optimize for protocol compatibility will win visibility in AI-driven shopping.

The takeaway? Commerce is shifting from storefronts you control to protocols that govern how transactions occur. The brands that adapt to agentic shopping in 2026 will own the next decade.

💸 Carrier Rate Reality Check

Three years of 5.9% increases plus surcharge explosions and what you can actually do about it.

Let's talk about the shipping cost pain you're feeling right now. This marks the third consecutive year both UPS and FedEx announced 5.9% average rate increases. UPS rates took effect December 22, 2025, while FedEx rates kicked in January 5, 2026.

But here's the real story: The 5.9% average doesn't include surcharges, many of which increased by more than that headline number. According to PartnerShip analysis, "Most shippers will see their costs go up over the announced 5.9% average." Learn more about the FedEx and UPS rate increase here.

What changed beyond base rates:

Cubic volume triggers expanded Both carriers shifted from traditional "length + girth" systems to cubic volume thresholds effective January 12-26, 2026. According to Sifted analysis, "Fees are now triggered not just by length, but by the overall volume of the package." This means bulky, low-density items, home goods, bedding, decor, pet supplies, now hit Additional Handling and Oversize charges even when dimensions haven't changed.

Delivery Area Surcharges adjusted UPS changed ZIP codes for Delivery Area Surcharge following FedEx's mid-2025 adjustment. Per PartnerShip, "Depending on where you're shipping, you could get hit with a Delivery Area Surcharge on a shipment that it didn't apply to in the past." UPS also changed zone alignments, meaning shipments could be rated at more expensive zones.

Residential surcharges spiked FedEx residential surcharges rose roughly 8.4% according, significantly higher than the 5.9% average. Peak season demand surcharges ranged from $1.55 to $8.75 per package for FedEx, with UPS using similar tiered structures.

The three-year trend: 2022: 5.9% increase introduced after years of 4.9% hikes
2023: Jumped to 6.9% during pandemic e-commerce surge
2024-2026: Returned to 5.9% as demand stabilized

Your cost recovery opportunity “refunds: Here's what most merchants miss: carriers owe you money for service failures, but they won't tell you about it. According to industry data, brands recover 6-20% of shipping costs through systematic invoice auditing.

What qualifies for refunds: Late deliveries (missed service commitments), damaged packages, lost shipments, billing errors and overcharges, incorrect surcharge applications.

Why automation matters: Manual auditing can't scale during peak volumes. Automated parcel audit systems identify service failures in real-time and file claims systematically, recovering costs most teams never know they're losing.

Action items for 2026:

1/ Audit Q4 2025 invoices now Review December-January shipments for incorrect surcharges, lost/ damaged deliveries and billing errors. File refund claims within carrier deadlines.

2/ Diversify carrier mix Don't rely solely on UPS or FedEx. Regional carriers and USPS Ground Advantage offer alternatives for specific routes and package profiles.

3/ Optimize packaging With cubic volume now triggering surcharges, right-sizing packaging isn't optional, it's margin protection.

4/ Automate refund recovery Set up systems that detect service failures and file claims automatically. This isn't about one-time audits, it's about systematic cost recovery.

The takeaway? Shipping costs will keep rising, but you control whether you recover the 6-20% carriers owe you for failures.

👋 Before you go…

2026 started with fundamental shifts in how commerce works. The brands that adapt to agentic shopping, systematically recover shipping costs, and turn returns into loyalty moments will define the next era of e-commerce.

Got questions about UCP integration, shipping refund recovery, or returns automation? Hit reply. Your challenges help us focus on what matters as commerce evolves.

PS: PS: If you're tired of manually auditing shipping invoices and chasing carrier refunds while losing 6-20% to service failures, this platform recovers what carriers owe you automatically.

🔜 Next Up in Buy&Beyond
Q1 Growth Strategies, First-Party Data Imperatives, and Spring Inventory Planning. We'll dive into how to sustain post-holiday momentum, why cookieless commerce arrived faster than expected, and the inventory decisions you need to make now for Q2 success.

xoxo