⚡The Returns Tsunami Is 48 Hours Away. Your January Will Drown or Dominate Based on What You Do This Week.

Hello there,

Welcome back to Buy&Beyond—your essential guide for DTC and e-commerce leaders closing out the most operationally intense year yet.

If you're catching your breath after peak season while staring down a January calendar that's about to explode with returns, this edition's for you.

This week, three critical realities are converging for every merchant we know:

Returns are about to rise 8–9%. January historically sees more return volume than any other month—and 2025's 7-9% e-commerce growth means you're facing record numbers starting January 2nd.

Your CX infrastructure is about to be stress-tested. The brands that built trust during checkout are about to find out if their post-purchase experience can handle what's coming.

And 2026 is already here. The trends reshaping customer expectations—AI-powered support, hyper-personalized tracking, sustainability pressure—aren't future problems. They're January 1st problems.

🚀 Let's break it down.

This edition of Buy&Beyond is brought to you by LateShipment.com

🎯 The January Returns Reality: Turn Refunds into Revenue

Why most brands struggle in January and how to be the exception.

The average e-commerce brand treats returns as a cost center. They process refunds, eat shipping costs, and watch margins evaporate while scrambling to restock inventory.

Smart operators see something different: returns are your second chance at the customer relationship.

Here's what's hitting in January 2026:

• Volume will break your systems. Expect close to 2x more than usual return requests starting January 2nd, peaking mid-month as gift recipients make decisions.

• Policy clarity separates the winners from the losers. Vague return windows, hidden fees, and clunky portals drive customers straight to your competitors.

• Exchange-first brands capture 40% more lifetime value. The difference between a refund and an exchange is the difference between losing a customer and gaining an advocate.

• Speed determines sentiment. Customers who wait 10+ days for refund processing leave 1-star reviews. Those processed in 3-5 days become repeat buyers.

• Your support team will drown without automation. Manual return approvals, tracking updates, and refund processing will consume every hour your team has.

Your action plan for the next 72 hours:

Audit your return policy visibility. Is it linked to the order confirmation emails? On tracking pages? In footer navigation? If customers have to hunt for it, you're creating friction.

Set up exchange incentives. Offer store credit bonuses (10-15% extra), free return shipping for exchanges, or instant exchanges for returns.

Automate the entire workflow. Self-service portals where customers initiate returns, print labels, select exchange items, and track status without emailing support.

Staff for the surge. January 2-15 will be your heaviest period. Don't skimp on support coverage—every unanswered email costs you a customer.

Monitor refund timing religiously. Set internal SLAs for refund processing (3-5 business days max) and surface exceptions immediately.

The data: Brands with streamlined return processes see 40% of refunds convert to exchanges or store credit. Those with clunky experiences lose 68% of return customers permanently.

Make returns your competitive advantage. The brands dominating 2026 won't be the ones with the lowest prices—they'll be the ones customers trust when something goes wrong.

Learn how OneReturn transforms returns from a cost center to a revenue driver

🛍 E-commerce CX Trends 2026: What's Changing and Why It Matters

The five forces are reshaping how customers shop, buy, and interact with brands.

E-commerce in 2026 looks nothing like it did 12 months ago. Customer expectations have evolved faster than most brands can adapt and the gap between what shoppers expect and what most stores deliver has never been wider.

Here's what's reshaping the landscape:

1. Social commerce is eating traditional discovery.
Customers aren't starting on Google anymore. They're discovering products on TikTok, buying directly through Instagram, and trusting creator recommendations over brand messaging. The new customer journey starts in-feed, not on your homepage.

2. AI shopping assistants are the new sales floor.
Shoppers expect instant, personalized guidance—product comparisons, size recommendations, compatibility checks—without talking to a human. Brands still relying on static FAQs and basic chatbots are losing sales to competitors with intelligent virtual assistants.

3. Zero-party data is replacing cookies.
With privacy regulations tightening and third-party tracking dying, customers are voluntarily sharing preferences, if you give them a reason to. Quizzes, style profiles, and preference centers aren't nice-to-haves anymore; they're how you personalize without invading privacy.

4. Omnichannel isn't optional; it's expected.
Customers research on mobile, buy on desktop, pick up in-store, and return via mail without thinking twice. Fragmented experiences, where your Instagram shop doesn't match your website pricing, or your app has different inventory than your store, kill trust instantly.

5. Speed and convenience trump loyalty programs.
One-click checkout, saved payment methods, guest checkout options, and same-day delivery matter more than points and tier status. Friction at checkout costs you more revenue than any discount could recover.

What smart operators are doing:

• Invest in shoppable content across TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube with seamless checkout experiences that don't force app exits.

• Deploying AI product advisors that ask qualifying questions, recommend options, and handle objections like a trained salesperson.

• Build preference centers and quiz funnels that collect zero-party data while delivering personalized shopping experiences.

• Unifying inventory, pricing, and customer data across all channels so the experience feels seamless whether customers shop in-app, online, or in-store.

• Optimizing for speed at every step—site performance, checkout flow, payment processing, and delivery options.

The takeaway? Shopping behavior in 2026 isn't about browsing and comparing anymore. It's about instant discovery, frictionless buying, and personalized guidance. The brands that make it effortless will own their categories. Those clinging to 2023 playbooks will watch conversion rates crater.

📊 The Evolving Post-Purchase Experience: From Delivery to Dominance

Why the journey after "order confirmed" now defines your brand more than the sale itself.

For years, brands have been obsessed with acquisition. Traffic. Conversion. AOV. The moment someone clicked "buy," the experience became transactional—a tracking number, a shipping notification, and radio silence until delivery.

That era is over.

The post-purchase phase—tracking, delivery, returns, support—now carries more weight in customer retention than your product page ever will. Here's why it's evolved and what you need to know to dominate post-purchase CX in 2026.

From passive tracking to active engagement:

Old model: "Your order has shipped. Track it here." (Dead-end link to carrier site.)
New model: Branded tracking hub with delivery countdowns, personalized product recommendations, exclusive offers, and proactive delay alerts.

Customers visit tracking pages 3-5x per order. That's 3-5 chances to reinforce your brand, drive repeat purchases, or lose trust with generic carrier pages.

From cost center returns to retention opportunities:

Old model: Returns = refunds = lost revenue.
New model: Returns = second-chance conversions through instant exchanges, store credit incentives, and AI-powered size/fit recommendations.

The brands treating returns as relationship builders are seeing 35-40% of return customers stay in the ecosystem instead of churning.

From reactive support to predictive problem-solving:

Old model: Wait for customers to complain, then scramble to fix.
New model: Monitor exceptions in real-time, alert customers before they notice issues, and resolve problems before tickets are created.

Proactive outreach reduces WISMO tickets by 60-70% and increases post-purchase satisfaction scores by double digits.

From one-size-fits-all to hyper-personalized journeys:

Old model: Every customer gets the same tracking emails, the same return portal, the same support experience.
New model: VIP customers get white-glove delivery updates. First-time buyers get onboarding content. High-return-risk segments get proactive fit guidance.

Personalization isn't just for product recommendations anymore—it's the expectation across every touchpoint.

What this means for 2026:

The brands that win won't have the best products or the lowest prices. They'll have the tightest post-purchase operations, clearest communication, and most seamless experiences when things go wrong.

Because here's the thing: Everyone's figured out how to sell online. Very few have figured out how to keep customers after the sale.

👋 Before you go…

This is our final edition of 2025—and what a year it's been.

We've watched merchants navigate inflation, carrier chaos, labor strikes, and record peak seasons. The operators who thrived weren't the ones with the biggest budgets. They were the ones who built systems that scaled, communicated proactively, and treated post-purchase as seriously as acquisition.

As you head into 2026, remember: Your returns process will define your January. Your post-purchase experience will define your year.

Got questions about return automation, AI support integration, or building tracking pages that convert? Hit reply. Your challenges shape what we focus on next.

PS: If January returns are keeping you up at night, this returns solution was built for exactly this moment.

🔜 That's a Wrap on 2025

Thanks for being part of the Buy&Beyond community this year. We'll be back in your inbox in late January with Cyber Week data, a post-mortem of January returns, and the Q1 playbook for sustaining momentum when traffic drops.

Until then—survive the returns rush, celebrate your wins, and get ready to dominate 2026.

xoxo,