⚡Holiday Chaos Is Here. Carriers Are Cracking. Your Margins Are at Risk.

Hello there,

Welcome back to Buy&Beyond—your essential guide for DTC and e-commerce leaders navigating the most operationally intense period of the year.

If you're staring at Q4 targets while juggling shipping nightmares 🚚💥, ad budget blowouts 💸, and team burnout 😩, this edition's for you.

If you're staring down Black Friday prep while juggling carrier surcharges, return planning, and team capacity, this edition's for you.

This week, three critical realities are hitting every merchant we know:

The holiday window has exploded. Black Friday isn't a single weekend anymore—shoppers start in early November, compressing your prep time while extending operational strain. Carrier networks are buckling. UPS and FedEx are expected to see delays 1.5x-2x above normal, with surcharges up 5-30%. And returns will hit record highs. An 8-9% rise in online shopping means your January will be drowning in returns if you don't prepare now.

🚀 Let’s break it down.

This edition of Buy&Beyond is brought to you by LateShipment.com

🎯 The 2025 Holiday Reality Check

Six forces reshaping how you need to operate this season.

The holiday playbook you used last year won't work this year. Several major forces are converging to create unprecedented operational complexity.

Tariffs are eating margins. Rising import duties on electronics, apparel, and toys mean higher costs you'll either absorb or pass on to price-sensitive customers. Labor strikes threaten timelines. Unresolved negotiations at ports could snowball into weeks of backlogs. Inflation-wary shoppers are deal-hunting with smaller carts and slower decisions. Geopolitical disruptions are spiking fuel costs and transit times. Early inventory ordering strains cash flow while risking overstock. Seasonal hiring is harder and more expensive than ever.

Here's what smart operators are doing:

Diversify sourcing now—explore nearshore fulfillment before peak demand hits. Line up backup carriers and automate exception alerts so you know about delays before customers do. Win through post-purchase excellence—branded tracking and transparent communication build trust that converts cautious shoppers into repeat buyers. Use historical data to forecast precisely—don't guess on inventory levels. Automate repetitive tasks like tracking updates and refund claims to free your team for growth-focused work.

🧠 The takeaway?
This isn't normal holiday chaos—it's compounded complexity. Winners won't have the deepest discounts; they'll have the tightest operations and clearest communication.

🛍 BFCM 2025: The Four Days That Define Your Year

What's different and how to win the most critical weekend.

Black Friday isn't a weekend anymore—it's a month-long marathon. Shoppers started in early November, meaning you need consistent inventory visibility and communication discipline for weeks, not days.

What's changed this year:

Carrier networks are maxed out. Record volumes plus labor disputes mean even reliable carriers will bottleneck. Don't promise what they can't deliver—build buffer days into cutoff dates. Value trumps discounts. Inflation-weary shoppers prioritize reliability over price. Post-purchase transparency now carries equal weight to your sale price. Returns will surge past 30%. Gift-heavy categories are seeing record return rates. A clunky process erodes all the trust you built during checkout.

Your action plan:

Week of Nov 18-22: Final systems check. Test automated alerts, confirm backup carriers, train support on delay scripts, and stock your top 20% of SKUs.

Nov 23-Dec 2: Peak execution. Monitor carrier dashboards real-time, send proactive delay notifications, activate exchange-first returns, and use tracking pages for holiday upsells.

Dec 3 onward: Retention mode. Follow up with satisfaction surveys, launch repeat-purchase email sequences, and analyze performance for next year.

The data: Brands with proactive communication see 72% fewer WISMO tickets. Personalized tracking drives 12% more repeat purchases. Streamlined returns convert 40% of refunds into exchanges or store credit.

📊 NEW: State of Holiday Shipping Report 2025

Download the data every merchant needs before peak season hits.

We just released our 8th annual State of E-commerce Holiday Shipping Report—and this year's findings should change how you prepare for peak season.

The critical data inside:

Carrier performance reality: UPS is expected to outperform FedEx, but both will see delays 1.5-2x above normal during peak weeks. Ground and Express services will both struggle—speed won't save you.

Cost increases you can't avoid: Peak season surcharges are up 5-30% across service levels. These aren't negotiable—they're baked into the 2025 pricing.

Returns tsunami incoming: An 8-9% rise in online shopping will drive returns to record highs. January sees 3x the normal volume. Your process needs to handle this without breaking.

Geographic hotspots: The report breaks down on-time performance by key U.S. cities, states, and retail categories—so you know exactly where delays are most likely.

What you'll get: Verified order data from millions of tracked shipments. Unbiased insights on UPS and FedEx on-time performance. Forecasts for the 2025 holiday season delivery reliability. Analysis of Ground vs Express service performance. Retail category breakdowns showing which products face the highest delay risk.

Why it matters: You can't manage what you don’t measure. This report gives you the data to set realistic expectations, choose the right carriers for each route, plan cutoff dates that work, and automate alerts for high-risk shipments.

Download the full 2025 State of Holiday Shipping Report here

👋 Before you go…

This holiday season will separate the prepared from the panicked. The brands that win won't be the ones with the biggest ad budgets—they'll be the ones with the tightest operations, clearest communication, and smartest automation.

Got questions about carrier backup plans, return process optimization, or automated exception management? Hit reply. Your real-world challenges help us focus on what actually matters when everything's on fire.

PS: If carrier chaos, support ticket floods, and shipping cost overruns are keeping you up at night, this platform was built for exactly this moment.

🔜 Next Up in Buy&Beyond

Cyber Week Postmortem, December Slowdown Strategies, and January Returns Survival. We'll dive into what worked (and what crashed) during the biggest shopping days, how to keep revenue flowing when traffic drops, and how to turn the return tsunami into repeat revenue.

xoxo,